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  Overall, the second half of the steel market Chinese runtime environment are both opportunities and challenges coexist, price good and bad factors, continue to move in the direction of heating.

First, internal and external demand continues strong

Since the beginning of this year, Chinese steel demand growth has remained strong. Chinese steel consumption year-on-year growth in the first 4 months of 30%. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in April, the industry index, 3 an industry index metal products manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing industry for more than 60%, reflecting the increase in the overall demand for steel industry as the leading "".

From some of the major domestic steel industry data, fixed asset investment rose 1 in April the national urban growth of 26.1%, growth continued to improve; the domestic production of 6220000 cars, an increase of 62%, also showed a high level of growth; others such as industrial boilers, metal cutting machine tools, civil steel ships and yield were significant growth situation compared with the previous year, a significant acceleration.

Judging from exports this year, the recovery of the world economy big environment, the market prices, stimulate the China steel exports continued to increase. According to customs statistics, in April a total of 1, the national steel export volume of 13020000 tons, an increase of 98.8% over last year. In April, exports of steel 4310000 tons, an increase of 29%, an increase of 2 times more than the export volume, a single month record high after the financial crisis. The main steel products in April, lumber exports 2800000 tons, an increase of nearly 5 times; bar exports 430000 tons, an increase of 3 times. Steel exports 250000 tons, an increase of 2 times.

Even if the impact of the economic stimulus out of the second half of the year, steel consumption intensity Chinese weakened, but its continued strong growth will not change the situation, the overall steel consumption index remains at a high level. The leading enterprises, Baosteel is also reflected, the downstream industry full of orders, although the automotive industry demand declined slightly, but to ease the pre automobile steel shortage of contradictions. According to sources from the industry, iron and steel enterprises export order is good, and give priority to export orders. According to the first 4 months of this year exports data estimates, the annual export volume of steel Chinese there could be close to 40000000 tons, growth of 5 over the previous year%, or even more, much higher than previously expected.

Two, stimulus exit cautious

How the second half Chinese steel demand environment? One of the most important factors is the national policy? No doubt, along with the domestic and international economic situation improved, and stabilized, in order to prevent overheating of the economy, save the inflation, the state implemented early economic stimulus policies will gradually withdraw. But judging from the current situation, but also because of some uncertain economic development at home and abroad, out of the national stimulus will be quite cautious. Under normal circumstances, the second half of the year will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, at the same time, a good grasp of the intensity and pace, the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control, especially to prevent the negative effects of superimposed policies, always a reasonable grasp of policy efforts.

Monetary policy, the central bank is expected to be more of a use to adjust the deposit reserve ratio quantitative monetary policy tools. As for the increase in interest rates and other price based instruments, the central bank will be cautious and prudent. Even if the rate hike, estimates have to wait until after the United States and Europe, until after the price rise is high, and once the intensity is not great, as far as possible to moderate, to avoid a significant impact on the investment and industrial production.

4 at the end of this year, bank credit, financial institutions, the loan balance of RMB 43.35 yuan, grow 21.96% compared to the same period last year, although the year has dropped slightly, but late last month was also higher than 0.15 percentage points, indicating that the central bank credit to exceed expectations, is not tightly closed. Is expected in the second half will continue to fine tune the implementation of this strategy, financial institutions credit growth is still not small, compared to the same period does not appear sharp contraction of the situation.

In particular, as an important part of the exit policy, the state regulation of real estate with heavy blows, inhibit the excessive price increases, too, for the steel market, is actually a bullish factors.

etailed analysis of national regulation of real estate "heavy", to sum up there are two: one is to resolutely crack down on hoarding land, unused building houses that have been sold to recover unpaid land, two is limited; more suites to buy, squeeze speculative bubble. The former measures, will stimulate new construction area, the promotion of construction; after a measure, the price drop, so that the unit of currency purchasing power, and ultimately enable more residents to buy a house, will also stimulate more housing sales and housing construction. Therefore, no matter what the content, and will promote the construction of housing construction. According to statistics, the first 4 months of this year the national real estate development enterprises housing construction area grew 31.7%; area of 457000000 square meters of new housing construction, an increase of 64.1%, the national macro-control measures are the display effect.

If the state regulation of the real estate industry, will eventually be increased to stimulate new construction area and construction increased, thereby increasing the steel consumption. Then, the steel market is concerned, this is of course the bullish factors.

Three, new cost factors appear

After entering the second half, Chinese iron and steel enterprises will face a higher cost of production. The higher the cost factors will emerge from the three aspects: one is the relatively low price of iron ore imports and reserves - depleted, facing higher prices of iron ore, iron and steel enterprises will enter the real period of high production cost

 
2015/1/15    

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